Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 1.208697 1.374035 1.549786 1.750090 1.971615 2.208671 2.481089
2025-01-12 0.940636 1.159736 1.408189 1.709169 2.062198 2.461386 2.945059
2025-01-19 0.735778 0.981993 1.279124 1.660344 2.132338 2.693193 3.405261
2025-01-26 0.611220 0.880187 1.224469 1.690289 2.296004 3.048214 4.043042
2025-02-02 0.507731 0.788651 1.169654 1.712201 2.451075 3.406945 4.719138
2025-02-09 0.417788 0.700404 1.106407 1.714082 2.579071 3.741962 5.394489
2025-02-16 0.347229 0.627809 1.054186 1.723530 2.716765 4.100470 6.129876
2025-02-23 0.277814 0.543909 0.972564 1.678955 2.771686 4.348356 6.732939
2025-03-02 0.216035 0.459991 0.877529 1.600458 2.766280 4.507585 7.221139
2025-03-09 0.178990 0.411906 0.833189 1.595553 2.870784 4.833484 7.971531
2025-03-16 0.145404 0.362825 0.779012 1.566426 2.932221 5.096931 8.645077
2025-03-23 0.126539 0.339233 0.767025 1.607908 3.111902 5.554888 9.642471
2025-03-30 0.099546 0.292494 0.705494 1.556528 3.136622 5.780155 10.313233
2025-04-06 0.081040 0.260149 0.666842 1.542479 3.224848 6.115715 11.183180
2025-04-13 0.064959 0.228892 0.624546 1.515217 3.286016 6.410243 12.006040
2025-04-20 0.056238 0.214614 0.617000 1.556811 3.478181 6.941099 13.251470
2025-04-27 0.048212 0.199755 0.605353 1.588141 3.653423 7.454043 14.496695
2025-05-04 0.040416 0.182811 0.585319 1.598346 3.787752 7.902471 15.656296
2025-05-11 0.034110 0.168378 0.568733 1.613823 3.933593 8.380616 16.893402
2025-05-18 0.027034 0.148018 0.531868 1.576607 3.966504 8.650700 17.775438
2025-05-25 0.020406 0.125810 0.484304 1.505838 3.920164 8.766136 18.383090
2025-06-01 0.016793 0.114352 0.465584 1.504021 4.022659 9.173384 19.544477
2025-06-08 0.013341 0.101518 0.439325 1.478463 4.069071 9.472310 20.518281